Developing an understanding of the theory of innovation

Sunday, April 19, 2009

Good enough means disruption is on the way

I was reading this article from techradar about many different technologies being good enough and in overshooting the requirements for many users (but not the most demanding)
http://www.techradar.com/news/world-of-tech/what-if-our-tech-is-good-enough--589169?src=rss&attr=all


From reading the Innovators Dilemma and the following books, this kind of overshooting of requirements means that there is an area of technology ripe for a disruptor.

The article mentions the following technologies
  1. Blu-Ray and DVD (Video storage media)
  2. Windows Vista and Windows 7 (Computer OS)
  3. Dual and soon multi-core PCs (Computer hardware)
  4. Faster broadband internet (Internet, connectivity)
So where is the disrupting technology in each of there areas?
  1. Video storage media (and distribution channel) are disrupted by media PCs and massive low cost storage in the form of Hard drives and soonish Solid State Disk (SSD) technology. Plus the distribution channel is hammered by the ease of downloading material off the net.
  2. When does having drop shadows and animated stuff on Computer User interface (UI) make much difference. People still struggle with making computers work, most drop into a browser and the browser may be the disrupter here. If you run your computer purely to use tools and software off the internet, why does the underlining OS mean anything.
  3. This is similar to point 2. The ability to work almost completely online means that the requirement for performance on the local machine is reduced. This always online is also helped by the disruptor to broadband internet (see point 4). The only holdout in this area is gaming, and the continued ability of game developers to suck every last ounce of performance out of the PC and associated videocards and still leave you with a framerate less than the best.
  4. I had read in the past about Japan and South Korea having massively fast broadband and the uptake of this faster broadband was reasonably small compared to the total internet population. The real disruptor here is wireless internet via 3G technology and 802.11 Wireless. Using the internet via your mobile phone sucked until recently and was also really expensive. Now even in Australia, you can get better than 256 KBits (ADSL1) from basically anywhere. In your car, on the train, with the right telco, in places which only to recently had access to either dialup (56 kbits) or satellite (latency is awful).

There is little wonder that the netbooks (smaller laptops) are mentioned. This combines several of the disruptors above. The smaller weight, and less performance means less weight and longer battery life, which dovetails perfectly with the notion of always online applications from anyway.
I have a Dell Mini 9 and it weighs less than some of the books I have. I actually replaced by older laptop for work with this. I can upgrade to 2 Gig and Windows XP works perfectly fine, and the SSD makes IO reads super fast.

The perfect computer device would be a device which has a screen the size of A4, that foldes to A5 (in half), has a touch screen, so you can type on the screen with a full size keyboard and has 3G internet in built, with a battery life around 3-4 hours.

Have Fun

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